CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z THU 29/05 - 06Z FRI 30/05 2003
ISSUED: 28/05 19:37Z
FORECASTER: GATZEN

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS ALPINE REGION, CENTRAL FRANCE, CENTRAL ITALY, THE BALKANS

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

SYNOPSIS

BROAD UPER RIDGE EXPANDS OVER EUROPE AND DISPLACES THE NORTHERN JETSTREAM TO SCANDINAVIA. WITHIN THIS RIDGE ... TWO UPPER TROUGHS EXTEND FROM EASTERN FRANCE OVER THE ALPINE REGION INTO EASTERN EUROPE AND FROM GREECE INTO TURKEY. AT THE SURFACE ... HIGH SITUATED OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL EUROPE. ALONG ITS PERIPHERY, COLD AIR FLOWS SOUTHWARD OVER EASTERN EUROPE.

DISCUSSION

...ALPINE REGION, CENTRAL FRANCE, CENTRAL ITALY, THE BALKANS...
UNSTABLE AIRMASS EFFECTS SOUTHERN CENTRAL EUROPE ... WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND MIXED LAYERS WITHIN THE TROPOSPHERE. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA ... WITH A CHANCE OF HIGH PRECIP AND SMALL HAIL. TO THE SW ... INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR UNDERNEATH THE WESTERN EDGE OF EASTERN EUROPEAN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD ASSIST FOR SOME STRONGER TSTMS ... WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE LOW.

...SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE...
UNDERNEATH THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN TROUGH ... MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD DESTABILIZE DURING THE DAY OVER GREECE, AND TURKEY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AS LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IS MODERATE AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS QUITE BIG ... A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHALLOW MESOCYCLONES EXSISTS ... WITH A CHANCE OF HAIL, STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO.

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